Military briefing: Kyiv ignores calls for reset of its ‘sneak and peek’ tactics

Arenosol is a sandy, well-aerated soil which dries quickly. Its presence in a swath of land either side of the strategic south-eastern city of Melitopol is one little-known reason why Kyiv’s counteroffensive may yet have a better chance of success than some of Ukraine’s allies fear.

“It is an example of the importance of local knowledge, the specific situations and context that determine every war,” said Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at the Kyiv-based National Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Because much of the soil in southern Ukraine remains firm even with rain, Ukrainian troops will still be able to manoeuvre through the winter. Time is not necessarily the limiting factor some people believe,” he added. 

Even as some allies have despaired of the campaign’s slow progress, Kyiv’s military chiefs argue that such detailed local awareness is key to its counteroffensive, enabling Ukraine to make small but significant gains while saving troops’ lives. Dmytro Kuleba, foreign minister, last week went so far as to say that critics of the campaign should “shut up”.

The sandier soil of the southern Zaporizhzhia region contrasts with the rich black earth that turns much of the rest of Ukraine into a muddy quagmire during the rainy autumn months.

“It would be helpful if the US had some high-ranking military observers on the ground,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defence minister.

Worries that Ukraine’s counteroffensive risks getting literally bogged down has prompted a flush of anxiety this summer, especially in Washington. One criticism is that Kyiv needs to reset its military strategy if it is to make decisive progress and maintain international support before wet weather hinders its forces’ ability to attack.

Another is that Ukrainian troops have failed to make best use of the combined arms manoeuvres recommended by western allies, instead falling back on artillery fire to pound Russian positions in an exhausting war of attrition that relies on dwindling supplies of western ammunition.

“The tactics have not changed. Our mission has not changed,” Oleksiy Danilov, chief of Ukraine’s national security council, told the Financial Times.

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Progress has been painfully slow since Kyiv launched its counteroffensive nearly three months ago. Troops have recaptured only a handful of villages, with daily advances averaging a few hundred metres.

One bleak assessment by the US intelligence community leaked in mid-August suggested that Ukrainian forces would fail to reach Melitopol this year. The transit hub, whose recapture would help sever Russia’s land bridge through occupied southern regions to the Crimea, is a focus of the south-eastern campaign.

Yet last week, Kyiv’s approach began to show signs of success, after forces penetrated a first layer of Russian defences around Robotyne and tested the next line around the village of Verbove. The strategic town of Tokmak lies 20km farther on through thick Russian defences, and Melitopol another 50km beyond that.

On Friday, John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesperson, said Ukraine had made “notable progress”. The day before, Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said Ukrainian commanders deserved the benefit of the doubt and that “we need to trust them”.

The fortifications that Russia has built in southern Ukraine present a uniquely formidable obstacle to the blitzkrieg-style rapid manoeuvres that have been advocated by the Pentagon and western military advisers.

Thick minefields, covered by constant artillery fires and monitored by drones, make it all but impossible for Ukrainian troops to advance — let alone deploy western-supplied main battle tanks and armoured vehicles in fast-manoeuvre warfare.

Then, behind the minefields, lie interconnected trenches and tunnels that allow Russia to move troops, weapons and ammunitions along the front line.

“No western country has fought a war like this since the 1940s and we’re seeing some military thinking being applied in a very oversimplified manner,” Zagorodnyuk said.

Bielieskov added: “Manoeuvre warfare is not a silver bullet and can only work if you can first bypass all the Russian strong points — Ukrainians need to fight the way they know how to fight.”

To try to break through Russian defences, Ukrainian forces have taken a three-pronged approach. The first involves slowly clearing a path through the minefields, often by hand and under cover of night.

“There is so much metal and shrapnel that metal detectors don’t work,” said one European military official. “The Ukrainians have to be extra clever; it’s a game of sneak and peek.”

The second prong uses long-range artillery and precision missiles supplied by the west to attack ammunition dumps, logistics and command centres, and prevent Russian forces from being able to resupply the front line.

It is a time-consuming process that Zagorodnyuk compared to the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which began with a bombing campaign to take out enemy logistics and defences before land forces attacked.

“That wasn’t called a war of attrition. It was part of a process to deny Iraqis the possibility of defending their positions,” he said. “Our process of preparation is taking longer but then we don’t have air supremacy like the US-led forces did then.”

The third prong involves using air and marine attacks with Ukrainian-made drones to hit targets in Crimea and deep inside Russia. Last Wednesday drones hit several Russian regions, destroying at least two military cargo planes at Pskov air base.

“The strikes help give a feeling of symmetry [between Ukrainian and Russian forces] and that we can undermine [Vladimir] Putin,” Bielieskov said.

The summer campaign appears to be reaching a decisive moment. Fearful of a Ukrainian breakthrough, Russian commanders have sent reserves to bolster the southern lines, including crack troops from its 76th air assault division.

They are also increasing attacks in the north-east, around the city of Kupyansk, in an attempt to draw resources away from Ukraine’s main southern offensive.

“It is a threat, for sure, but our commanders consider it is manageable,” Zagorodnyuk said.

Yet with only slim prospects of a decisive recapture of territory, the degree to which allies will continue to underwrite Kyiv with military and economic support, and the relative strength of the two armed forces, remain uncertain.

Over the past 18 months Kyiv’s western allies led by the US have provided just over $110bn of military aid. Yet Russia’s defence budget for this year alone is over $100bn, Reuters has reported, and it spent an estimated $86bn last year.  

As for how many troops Kyiv has kept back to reinforce any breakout, one Ukrainian defence adviser suggested that it still had strategic reserves to deploy. But how many remains, for now, a close guarded secret.

Additional reporting by Roman Olearchyk in Kyiv