UK virus cases hit 6-week high but vaccines diminish threat

New coronavirus cases in the UK have exceeded 3,000 for the first time since mid-April, but Financial Times analysis suggests the high proportion of people vaccinated is likely to blunt the force of any “summer wave”.

The jump in cases reported on Wednesday represents an 18 per cent rise in the past week and in Bolton — the north-west town that has become a hotspot for the variant first detected in India — infection rates hit a six month-high.

In the seven days to May 21 infections in Bolton rose to the equivalent of 452.1 cases per 100,000 people from 300.8 the previous week.

Scientists had warned that the recent easing of lockdown across Britain would trigger a virus resurgence, but many hope the vaccine programme will help keep infections in check. Just under 73 per cent of the UK’s adult population have had a first dose of a vaccine, with 44.8 per cent fully vaccinated.

One of the big unknowns in recent weeks is what impact the highly transmissible variant first identified in India — B.1.617.2 — would have on the course of the pandemic although initial data suggests two doses offers good protection against symptomatic infection.

The latest data shows daily hospital admissions in England have increased by 17 per cent in the last week from 74 to 87, with a steeper increase of 26 per cent in the north-west, which includes some of the main B.1.617.2 hotspots, and a 76 per cent jump in Scotland.

Crucially case rises remain concentrated among younger people, who are less vulnerable and will not be fully vaccinated, suggesting the rise in hospital admissions is likely to be less rapid than previous waves and result in a lower proportion of deaths.

The younger age profile of cases has already made Bolton’s current surge 68 per cent less lethal than it would otherwise have been, according to a Financial Times analysis based on data from Daniel Howdon, a health economist at the University of Leeds.

The analysis of fatality rates based on age in the Bolton area suggests the vaccine is working despite the rise in cases. More than 80 per cent of the town’s over-60s have had both jabs. And in the most at risk group — the over-80s who are 100 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than people half their age — the fatality rate has dropped to one in 150 from one in 50 last autumn.

The FT calculated that out of the 2,678 positive cases since the start of April in Bolton, nine Covid-19 patients would be expected to die. This compares with an estimated 28 deaths out of the first 2,695 cases in Bolton’s second wave last September.

Nevertheless, the variant is putting a strain on NHS resources in the town. The Royal Bolton Hospital said it was taking “urgent actions” to free up beds after one of its busiest days ever in its accident and emergency. As of Tuesday it was treating 41 Covid patients including eight in critical care. This, however, is just a third of the peak in the second wave in December.

FT research suggests it is not only in the eight main hotspots that B.1.617.2 is causing a rise in infections, with the London boroughs of Croydon, Ealing and Greenwich all showing a rise in cases driven by the variant. Similarly, the borough of Rossendale, close to Bolton, has registered a big spike from the variant in the last two weeks.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers which represents health organisations across the UK, said the age profile of those being admitted to hospital appeared to confirm that the vaccine was working.

“[Hospital] chief executives are saying hospitalised Covid-19 patients are much younger than before. They are seeing very few people who are above 65,” he told the FT. He added that “very few” people in hospital had received both doses of one of the vaccines and those who had done mostly suffered from a number of underlying conditions and were “already ill.”

Health secretary Matt Hancock said on Thursday that 10 per cent of people hospitalised in the main variant hotspots were fully vaccinated.

Hopson said the younger age profile of those admitted meant they were easier to treat than those seen in earlier pandemic surges. “There is much less demand for critical care and [hospital leaders] would expect the mortality rate to be significantly lower this time,” he added.

Hopson said areas which had been the first to see rises, such as Bolton and Blackburn, had reported that they were “now beginning to see the community infection rates start to peak and plateau.” However, he cautioned that “at least another week” would be needed to determine that hospital admission rates were not going to reach the levels of January and February.