Reform’s second-place standing in polls underscores potential scale of Tory defeat

Good morning. What do we want? To increase economic growth, tackle child poverty and restore our tattered public services. How much will we tax and spend to get it? Only as far as middle England will allow us!

Sorry. You’re probably tired of variations on that gag in this newsletter, but it remains, essentially, Labour’s strategy to win this election — and has been for the whole of Keir Starmer’s leadership. That carried through to Labour’s no-surprises manifesto: a lot of ambition in terms of its aims, a lot of parsimony in terms of its spending commitments.

I continue to have many doubts that Labour’s policy pledges can cash the cheques they are writing. But a party’s manifesto, and indeed its election campaign more broadly, should not come as a surprise. It should build on what it has said and how it has positioned itself if it is in opposition, and it should follow on narrowly from what it has done and what it has achieved if it is in government.

The fact that Labour continues to have a massive lead in the opinion polls, and that Starmer’s own ratings have increased during this campaign, are precisely because nothing the party has done has been a particular surprise.

One reason why Rishi Sunak’s campaign is a mess is that it is a surprise — not least to the Tory party machine, which was not in fighting shape at the start of this contest (and in many ways still isn’t).

More importantly, Sunak’s campaign can’t be reconciled with what he did in government. His biggest policy promise on national insurance is the complete opposite of the taxes he chose to increase as chancellor.

Part of why the Tory party is in trouble is because the UK as a whole is just not in great condition, as this excellent set of charts shows. But another reason is that Sunak’s campaign is obviously very cynical and is treating people flirting with a vote for Nigel Farage’s party like they’re fools. Promising people who think you’ve failed on immigration a half-baked return to national service is not a good idea. Explaining away your failure on NHS waiting lists with a sophistic game about how the numbers went up before they went down is also not a good idea. When I travel the country, Sunak’s visible contempt for the disillusioned Conservatives he is courting has been noticed by those very voters, and unsurprisingly so.

One manifestation of Sunak’s failed campaign is that Reform, far from being squeezed, is either holding steady or climbing in the polls. A YouGov poll now shows Farage’s party ahead of Sunak’s: the first time ever with any pollster.

Some more thoughts on the political repercussions of that below.

Il sorpasso

The safest prediction about the explosive YouGov poll showing Reform on 19 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives on 18 per cent, is that it will completely overshadow the Tory party’s planned response to Labour’s manifesto, unless Laura Trott unveils cast-iron proof that Rachel Reeves is funding Labour’s promises by eating babies.

The major story for the next few days will be whether the Conservative party is at risk of not just defeat, but something closer to a complete wipeout.

To put it into perspective, I put this poll into the FT’s fun and free election prediction tool and these are the numbers you get:

Labour 468 seats

Liberal Democrats 92 seats

Conservatives 31 seats

SNP 21 seats

Reform 18 seats

There’s an important note of caution here, though, which is that YouGov has consistently shown among the highest polling results for Reform. At no point in any actual election this parliament has Reform done as well, let alone better, than Ukip in their 2010-15 heyday. Now, that isn’t to say that Reform won’t be able to win some seats in parliament despite that: the Conservative party was also much more popular back in 2015 than it is today.

But it is to say that if YouGov is right, Reform’s popularity has doubled since the local elections in May, which is certainly possible. A combination of Rishi Sunak’s poor campaign, his skipping out of D-Day early, Farage returning to lead the party and the party’s great media profile could mean that Reform is doing twice as well as it was in May. But I wouldn’t bet on it myself.

In some ways, though, it doesn’t really change the big picture, which is that the Conservative party is in deep, deep, deep trouble. There is a reason why the Tory campaign consists of Sunak and almost no one else: it is because many ministers are in their own constituencies, fighting for their political careers. There’s a reason why Farage came back, and it’s because he scents opportunity.

What might make all of that worse is if this poll triggers further panic and disarray within the Conservative party. This campaign has a little under three weeks left to run: the Tory party’s problems could yet get worse.

Now try this

I am very much enjoying the new Charli XCX record, Brat — as did Ludovic Hunter-Tilney (whose review you can read here). I think “I might say something stupid” is my favourite track, but I am not sure how my feelings will evolve over the course of the weekend.

However you spend it, have a wonderful weekend!

Top stories today

• No going back | Labour would not seek to rejoin the EU or the single market if it wins power, Angela Rayner said last night in a fractious, seven-way debate on ITV.

• Sweet harmony | Keir Starmer is examining proposals to launch “mission boards” to aid cross-departmental co-ordination among civil servants in Whitehall.

• Margin of error | Why are there such discrepancies between pollsters? FT data scientists explain.

Below is the Financial Times’ live-updating UK poll-of-polls, which combines voting intention surveys published by major British pollsters. Visit the FT poll-tracker page to discover our methodology and explore polling data by demographic including age, gender, region and more.

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