Why Emmanuel Macron went all in against Marine Le Pen

Emmanuel Macron has an oft-repeated catchphrase he uses behind closed doors with ministers and advisers: Il faut prendre son risque, you must be willing to take risks.

The president of France has done that in spades by calling for snap elections after his centrist alliance took a drubbing on Sunday from Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National in European parliamentary elections. In doing so, he has again shown the daring that has marked his political career since he was elected as a little-experienced outsider in 2017.

“I have confidence in the French people to make the right choice now to enable the country to face the great challenges ahead of it,” he said on Sunday night.

The bet could also backfire spectacularly if the two-round vote on June 30 and July 7 forces him into a power-sharing government, known as a “cohabitation”, with the RN. It would be the first time under the fifth republic founded in 1958 for the president and prime minister to hold such diametrically opposite views on how the country should be run.

If Macron was saddled with an RN prime minister, he would continue to run international affairs and serve as the head of the military, but domestic affairs would be run by Le Pen or her 28-year-old lieutenant Jordan Bardella, who she has said would be their prime minister.

François Patriat, a veteran senator and longtime Macron backer, said the decision to call a snap election was in keeping with how the French constitution was supposed to work when there was an impasse preventing the government from functioning.

“It is not a risky bet — it’s a brave decision that respects French institutions and is very gaulliste in nature,” he said, referring to General Charles de Gaulle who famously resigned as president in 1969 when he felt he could not govern. “The president is putting the responsibility back on the French people. They voted in a dumb way in the European elections, now it’s up to them to decide.”

Patriat added governing has been difficult since Macron’s alliance lost its outright majority in 2022. He argued the RN would not be able to muster an absolute majority, which requires 289 of the 577 seats of the lower house, the National Assembly.

No opinion polls are yet available, but some analysts on Monday said a hung parliament was a real possibility, which would usher in a period of instability only six weeks before Paris hosts the Olympic Games. A sell-off in French stocks and bonds has dragged down European-wide indices.

Macron’s centrist alliance, made up of three parties, now holds about 250 seats, and the RN has 88, making it the single largest opposition party. The left’s 149 seats are spread out over several parties, sapping their influence.

Macron’s allies say voters could deliver other outcomes that benefit the president and would provide the political clarification that has been needed since his centrist alliance lost its majority in 2022.

In the French system, the president has a lot of sway over naming the prime minister, as long as the person can survive no-confidence votes filed by the opposition. For example, Macron could name a prime minister from the centre-right or centre-left and govern in coalition, even if those parties have ruled that out.

In the European election on Sunday, the RN received 31.4 per cent of the French vote, more than double the 14.6 per cent for Macron’s list. The centre-left and Socialist candidates won 13.8 per cent.

But it is difficult to predict how those power dynamics will transfer to the legislative elections, which have two rounds of voting. European elections in France have also long been seen by voters as protest votes against the incumbent president, which is a different matter from choosing who they want to govern the country.

Macron has more prosaic reasons for calling the election. The opposition had been threatening to topple the government with a no-confidence vote in the autumn over the annual budget that was set to include some €25bn in public spending cuts to address the ballooning deficit.

An ally of Macron in the Senate said the budget debate was going to be very tense with the real risk of street protests over the unpopular spending cuts. “It is better that he acted now rather than wait for things to go wrong in the autumn,” the person said. “He is wrongfooting the opposition by moving fast.”

Another more Machiavellian explanation for Macron dissolving the National Assembly is that he may be hoping to inoculate the country against the RN ahead of the 2027 presidential race in which Le Pen is the frontrunner to succeed him.

“For years now, voters have been saying ‘we’ve tried everything besides the RN’ and flirting with Le Pen’s movement,” said author and political analyst Chloé Morin. “Macron is going to let them taste the RN in a bet that they will soon be disgusted by them.”

Macron has again shown himself to be an inveterate gambler, as in 2022 when he faced down street protests and narrowly survived no-confidence votes to pass his unpopular pensions reform, and when he bet that he could outlast the gilets jaunes movement in 2019.

“It’s a risk but it’s too early to know if it’s a mad one or a smart one,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group. “He is gambling with his reputation and legacy, and the stability of France and the European Union.”