Porkenomics: no longer bringing home the bacon

Butchers and other meat retailers in the UK are squealing in dismay. Shortages of labour and carbon dioxide are stemming pork production from abattoirs and meat processing plants. That leaves overweight pigs idling on farms. An estimated 120,000 that would, in normal times, have been slaughtered for food could be wastefully culled.

The snarl-up reflects wider UK supply chain problems with post-Brexit labour shortages at their roots. The government is promising £500m to help out-of-work Brits fill the gaps. But that is unlikely to come in time to help Britain’s 2,000 or so pig farmers.

They are stuck with animals they cannot sell and have to keep feeding. Some pigs have swollen to 150kg, twice the usual weight at which they would head to the abattoir. Super-sized pigs are not easily butchered into neat, pre-packaged pork chops.

Prices for feed, farmers’ biggest input cost, are rising. This mix of soya and cereals accounted for 67 per cent of the cost of pork production in the second quarter, according to AHDB, up from 60 per cent two years ago. Costs for labour, a smaller slice, are climbing as the smaller pool of post-Brexit workers command inflated salaries.

Meatpackers have their own problems. The industry, largely carved up by four operators, mostly manages the “abattoir to shop” part of the chain. This is typically a three-day process. The cost of inputs, including carbon dioxide used for stunning animals and keeping packaged meat fresh, are increasing. Christmas preparations are running late. British diners may need to forgo such festive staples as pigs in blankets, a labour-intensive favourite.

Pig farmers fret that they, rather than British consumers, may be left in the lurch as supermarkets turn to cheaper imported meat. Processors have cut purchases of contracted British pigs by up to a quarter a week since August, says the National Pig Association. More pigs on the farm heighten the risk of disease and welfare issues. This increases the likelihood of a cull. Consumers should order their Christmas gammon early this year.