Europe should talk less and prepare more against Russian threat, says Finnish president

Finland’s new president has warned other Nato leaders to be less “belligerent” in their rhetoric against Russia and instead prepare their armies for a potential conflict.

Alexander Stubb told the Financial Times that recent public warnings of Russian aggression beyond Ukraine were diverting from what European countries should really focus on: helping Kyiv immediately and readying their militaries — even as he did not believe Moscow would attack a Nato country before 2030.

“I’m a little bit worried about this rather belligerent talk about Russia going to test Article 5 [Nato’s collective defence clause], and that Europe is next in line. I think we should prepare for that, but I think it’s highly unlikely,” Stubb, who took office last month, said in his first international newspaper interview.

“What I call on all European states to do is to become more Finnish. In other words, more prepared. You have to prepare for the worst in order to avoid it,” he added.

Supporting Kyiv in coming months was paramount, as Russian President Vladimir Putin was “feeling very confident” and targeting a “window of opportunity” to break Ukraine’s frontline defences between now and September, Stubb said.

There has been a flood of warnings this year from European leaders, ranging from Poland, Germany and Sweden to the UK and Estonia about the prospect of Russia being able to attack a Nato country in the next three to ten years.

The rhetoric of French President Emmanuel Macron has also become much harsher on Russia in recent months and the EU’s chief diplomat said this week that a European war outside of Ukraine was “no longer a fantasy”.

These warnings have been based on Russia moving to a wartime economy and increasing its defence spending rapidly as well as pledges to increase its troop levels on its border with Nato.

Stubb said Europe had “a window of opportunity for a few years” to change its thinking from the “la-la land” of the post-cold war era when too many countries considered war unlikely.

“For the alliance and the [European] Union, it’s not only about the frontline states being prepared, it’s about everyone being prepared,” he added. “The good news is that we are prepared, come hell or high water.”

Among the measures other European countries should consider, Stubb mentioned conscription, which is mandatory in Finland.

The president conceded that his call was a “bit un-Finnish” as the country is known for its modesty and soft-spoken approach. But he added that Finland had fought more than 30 wars and skirmishes with Russia since the 1300s.

Finland became a Nato member last year after applying weeks after Putin’s all-out war on Ukraine, a decision that altered decades of neutrality. After it joined, the alliance’s direct border with Russia expanded by 1,340km.

Asked about Russia’s military plans to increase its presence along the Finnish border, Stubb replied: “We are not worried about it all, but we’re prepared.”

He added that Finland’s base-case scenario was that by 2030 Russia will still have an authoritarian leader and that it “will have replenished its army to roughly the same level as before the war began”.

Stubb urged Nato countries to “support Ukraine for as long as it takes and at this stage with almost whatever it takes” to repel Russia’s springtime offensive.

He added: “The Russians understand that their window of opportunity will start ending towards the end of August, start of September. That is why it’s urgent for us to help Ukraine right now.”

He also said that Finland in the short term was emptying “our own storage [of weapons and ammunition] in order to support Ukraine, and then refill our own”.

Finnish media have portrayed Stubb as a Nato president, given that his first foreign trips were not to Sweden as is traditional but to a Nato exercise in Norway, to Kyiv, and this week to Brussels to meet the secretary-general of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg.