Canadian conservatives have found a way to win back young voters
The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House
Young Conservatives have become an endangered species in the UK. On five separate occasions in the past two months, polls have shown that fewer than one in 10 of Britain’s under-30s plans to vote Tory at the next general election. A survey in late September put the figure at one solitary per cent.
It would be easy to assume similar trends are playing out across the western world. The increased blurring of cultural lines across the Atlantic can make it feel like anything that is happening here must be mirrored over there. But the Tory death spiral with youth is a very British phenomenon.
For all the talk of steep age gradients in US politics, a third of under-30s voted Republican in last year’s midterms, and today the same share say they would vote for a Republican president next year, presumably Donald Trump. The American young conservative vote is both substantial and firm. And while those figures may come as a surprise, they have nothing on what’s happening across the US’s northern border.
Since slumping to less than 20 per cent of the young adult vote in 2021, Canada’s Conservatives have surged back and are now polling at 40 per cent among under-30s, turning what was a 50-point deficit to the major centre-left and progressive parties into just a 5-point gap, flattening the age gradient to their support. Today, 40 per cent of Canadians say they would vote Conservative — more than any other party — whether aged under 30 or over 60.
What is the secret of their success?
They have certainly been helped by an increasing sense of disillusionment with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is often criticised for saying one thing and doing another. But you don’t double your vote share and surge into the lead simply by not being the other guy. Instead, the explanation appears to lie in a bold and explicitly pro-youth policy position: the Canadian Conservatives have come out as the party of housebuilding.
Housing affordability crises are widespread across the west, but Canada’s is especially acute, now ranking as the second most important issue facing the country behind the wider cost of living crisis. For months, Canadian voters have said they don’t think the government is focused enough on tackling the problem, creating space for the opposition to make its own pitch.
Canadian Tory leader Pierre Poilievre has grasped the opportunity with both hands. The 44-year-old, who assumed the party leadership just over a year ago, has made housing one of his principal causes, outlining proposals that would withhold funds from cities that don’t build enough houses, and give extra money to those that do.
The policies are not short on detail, nor are the announcements technocratic. Earlier this summer, in a video which played on classic aspirational conservative themes, he announced a goal to build high-density housing near transit stations, pitched as a way to help struggling young adults gain access to good jobs in the city.
His vote share among under-30s had climbed steadily from 20 per cent to 30 per cent in his first 10 months as leader, but jumped to 40 per cent in the weeks since the housing pitch.
There are signs that lessons are being learnt in the US too, where some Republicans are beginning to campaign on a platform of increasing housing supply, pushing for policies that would make it easier to build on new greenfield sites.
The same opportunity was there for the taking in the UK. Voters of all age groups say that if the Tories came out with a policy of “building many more houses”, it would make them more likely to vote for them. However, the party has demurred, repeatedly backing down on ambitious housing policies out of a fear of losing support among its older homeowning base. In doing so, they have ceded this territory to Keir Starmer’s Labour party, which has announced ambitious proposals of its own.
Canada’s Conservatives have reinvented themselves and now have higher support among young adults today than at any time since the 1990s — and without sacrificing older votes. Their British counterparts have doubled down on the past and are writing off their chances with an entire generation as a result.
After bringing in a series of Australian polling gurus who have advised the party to lean into culture war politics, perhaps it’s time the Tories brought in a Canadian consultant instead?
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